A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
